Langsung ke konten utama

Pursuing the Economic Outlook of O-Eight

The 2008 economic outlook has been predicted by many analysts. There are optimism and also pessimism. Only time will later prove it.
The economic growth is expected to be 6,5 % due to developments outside of Java. The government’s target is 6,8 %. Development in Java Island is perceived to be in a stagnant phase already.
The world’s crude oil price could again reach sky high in 2008 (towards USD 100/barrel) therefore the government will have to increase subsidies or find other solutions to this problem. Currently, they are socializing this scheme to shift from lower octane fuel to a higher one along with the increasing price. But it is not popular to the people.
The program of shifting from kerosene to LPG is still not as the government plan yet. In many rural areas in Indonesian cities we see people queuing for kerosene for their daily cooking needs, while LPG is not well spread according to plan.
As the effect of this price increase, it would trigger inflation rate to a figure 6,8% above 4- 6 % target of the government. This means that the Central Bank Rate (BI Rate) wouldn’t get any lower than the current 8% figure. Even so, the government has a more optimistic figure of 7,5%.
The US sub prime mortgages issue is still haunting the global economy cause it will determined whether the US will step into an economic recession phase. This year (2007) alone, many investors shift their portfolio investments to high grade economy countries (Asian Markets) to gain more profit because of higher yield.
Because of the above conditions, analyst predicts that the stock market could reach an index of 3000 – 3600 as a bullish condition. Any movements of the Fed Rate has direct impact to Asian markets proven by 2007’s September decrease from 5,25% to 4,25%.
But this December after proven that that lowering did not do much to the US economy, the world markets seems to now have immunity to such policy.
The scenario that we would not want to see is the US economic recession impacts China (China’s reserves most are in USD), then later impacts the Asian markets including Indonesia.
Currently Indonesians are relying on CPO, mining goods, and the portfolio investment markets. But prices could get bad in international trading because of bargaining conditions.
The RI economic team has great responsibility to the sustainability and stability of the Indonesian economy.
Redaksi
BelajarEkonomi.Com

Komentar

Postingan populer dari blog ini

Jenis-jenis Analisis Ilmu Ekonomi

Saat kita belajar ekonomi kita melakukan beberapa analisis yang disebut analisa ekonomi.Ada beberapa jenis analisis ekonomi yakni: 1. Ekonomi Teori (economics analysis) yaitu ilmu yang menerangkan hubungan peristiwa-peristiwa ekonomi dan kemudian merumuskan hubungan-hubungan itu dalam suatu hubungan ekonomi.contoh: hukum permintaan, hukum penawaran,teori produksi,dan lain-lain. 2. Ekonomi Deskriptif (deskriptive economics), yaitu ilmu yang menggambarkan keadaan yang sebenarnya wujud dari perekonomian tsb.Contohnya: keadaan petani di Klaten,inflasi tahun 1997,dst. 3. Ekonomi Terapan (applied economics), yaitu ilmu ekonomi yang menelaah kebijakan-kebijakan yang perlu dilaksanakan dalam mengatasi masalah-masalah ekonomi. contoh: ekonomi moneter, ekonomi koperasi, ekonomi perusahaan,dll BelajarEkonomi.Com

Latest 2009 Lay Off Prediction

(BelajarEkonomi.Com)Enterprise Owner Association (Apindo) has recently revised their prediction of total lay offs in Indonesian industries. As mentioned before by it's chairman,lay offs are a must and very difficult to avoid. Actually there are choices for company owners to deal with the crises: 1. A Salary Cut 2. Homing employees, which means only receiving basic salary and no presence and transport pay, and .. 3. The hardest choice which is Total Lay Off. At a recent press conference, the Apindo chairman, Sofyan Wanandi said the figures would reach 1 - 1,5 million lay offs which would peak at the mid of 2009.This is above the ILO prediction of 650,000 (six hundred and fifty thousand) . To support his statement, joined with him in the press conference was Chairman of the Textile Association, Chief of the Association of Shoemakers, Head of Food and Beverages Association, and the Motorcycle industry Association's chief. The unemployment rate would rise 9 percent caused by t...

Kewirausahaan (Entrepreneurship)

Kewirausahaan memiliki beberapa definisi, diantara definisi yang cukup terkenal adalah yang dikeluarkan oleh Zimmerer dan Scarborough (2005) yang mendefinisikannya sbb: An Entrepreneur is one who creates a new business in face of risk and uncertainty for the purpose of achieving profit and growth by identifying significant opportunities and assembling the necessary resources to capitalize on them. Dari atas kita bisa menyimpulkan bahwa seorang entrepreneur /wirausahawan adalah orang yang berani menanggung resiko atas bisnis yang dia tekuni. Orang tersebut juga melihat bahwa terdapat suatu peluang luar biasa dalam suatu bidang. Dari konsep tersebut tergambar pula bahwa wirausahawan tersebut mengetahui berbagai cara yang untuk mengoptimalkan sumber daya (resources) yang ia miliki dalam rangka modal usaha dan modal dari pengembangan usahanya . Wirausahawan tersebut juga memiliki keyakinan bahwa usahanya pasti akan tumbuh dan berkembang baik secara lambat atau cepat. Yang ...